U.S. vs. China trade war revival sinks soybean prices and alarms Uruguay
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The relaunch of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing has rattled global agricultural markets, particularly soybean exporters in Uruguay. U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose fresh tariffs on Chinese shipping firms over oil imports from Russia prompted Beijing to retaliate with new port duties on American vessels, reigniting tensions between the two powers.
Soybean prices fell by 1.5%, from $396 to $389 per ton, while July 2026 futures dropped to $355, erasing part of the sector’s gains from earlier in the year.
For Uruguay, the downturn comes at a critical moment. The Oilseed Technology Board (MTO) projects a planting area of 1.35 million hectares, around 30,000 fewer than last year. With prices expected between $350 and $380 per ton, the average profit margin per hectare could fall to $166, down from $388 in the previous season, when Uruguay posted a record harvest of 3.9 million tons.
Analysts warn that a prolonged trade confrontation between the world’s two largest economies could further depress prices and limit profitability for exporters. Even though Uruguay’s soybean exports have grown 20% so far in 2025, volatility in global markets threatens to reverse the trend.
Beyond agriculture, Wall Street’s losses and falling commodity indexes underline that the economic impact of the tariff war extends far beyond the farm sector. The end of the brief U.S.-China trade truce not only reshapes global commerce but also exposes the vulnerability of smaller economies like Uruguay’s, which remain heavily dependent on external demand and price stability.
* Original text in Spanish. Translated by Large Language Model (LLM) technology.
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