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The latest official data shows that China’s foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexico has declined significantly in recent years, reaching a virtually insignificant level last year. According to the Ministry of Economy, FDI from China barely reached $151.4 million in 2023, representing a meager 0.4% of the total $36 billion that Mexico received that year. This figure marks a historic low since records have been kept, raising concerns about the state of trade relations between the two countries.
Experts attribute this situation to various issues, with the registration criteria used to account for foreign investment being a notable factor. However, a new indicator introduced by the Mexican government has shed light on a different perspective: Beijing is listed as one of the main investors in Mexico, according to this new metric used to measure investment intentions.
While official data reflect a cumulative decline in Chinese FDI in Mexico compared to other countries, Enrique Dussel Peters, coordinator of the Mexico-China Studies Center (Cechimex), presents an alternative reality. Dussel Peters suggests that official records may significantly underestimate the true extent of Chinese investment in Mexico. He estimates that China’s cumulative FDI in Mexico could be at least ten times higher than officially reported, reaching $21 billion.
The Ministry of Economy has begun issuing reports on investment intentions, which reveal a more optimistic outlook. In 2023, foreign companies announced plans to invest more than $110 billion over the next two years, with China in second place at $13 billion. These figures are in stark contrast to previous official data, suggesting continued interest from Chinese companies to invest in Mexico.
These new investment projections paint an encouraging picture for trade relations between Mexico and China. However, they also raise questions about the accuracy of current records and the need to review registration criteria to accurately reflect the true magnitude of foreign investment in the country.